The Roe effect is a hypothesis about the long-term effect of

abortion Abortion is the termination of a pregnancy by removal or expulsion of an embryo or fetus. An abortion that occurs without intervention is known as a miscarriage or "spontaneous abortion"; these occur in approximately 30% to 40% of pregn ...

on the political balance of the United States, which suggests that since supporters of the legalization of abortion cause the erosion of their own political base, the practice of abortion will eventually lead to the restriction or illegalization of abortion. It is named after ''

Roe v. Wade ''Roe v. Wade'', 410 U.S. 113 (1973),. was a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the Court ruled that the Constitution of the United States conferred the right to have an abortion. The decision struck down many federal and st ...

'', the U.S. Supreme Court case that effectively legalized abortion nationwide in the U.S. Its best-known proponent is

James Taranto James Taranto (born January 6, 1966) is an American journalist. He is editorial features editor for ''The Wall Street Journal'', in charge of the newspaper's op-ed pages, both print and digital.The Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...

'' who coined the phrase "Roe effect" in ''Best of the Web Today'', his

OpinionJournal.com ''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...

column. Put simply, this hypothesis holds that: *Those who favor legal abortion are much more likely to have the procedure than those who oppose it. *Children usually follow their parents' political leanings. *Therefore, pro-abortion rights parents will have more abortions and, hence, fewer children. *Therefore, the pro-abortion rights population gradually shrinks in proportion to the

anti-abortion Anti-abortion movements, also self-styled as pro-life or abolitionist movements, are involved in the abortion debate advocating against the practice of abortion and its legality. Many anti-abortion movements began as countermovements in respons ...

population. *Therefore, support for legal abortions will decline over time. A similar argument suggests that political groups that oppose abortion will tend to have more supporters in the long run than those who support it. In 2005, the ''Wall Street Journal'' published a detailed explanation and statistical evidence that Taranto says supports his hypothesis. Taranto first discussed the concept in January 2003, and named it in December 2003. He later suggested that the Roe effect serves as an explanation for the fact that the fall in teen birth rates is "greatest in liberal states, where pregnant teenagers would be more likely to ave abortionsand thus less likely to carry their babies to term." The ''Journal'' has also published articles about this topic by Larry L. Eastland and

Arthur C. Brooks Arthur C. Brooks (born May 21, 1964) is an American author, public speaker, and academic. Brooks served as the 11th President of the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of twelve books, including ''Love Your Enemies'' (2019), The ''Co ...

. Eastland has argued that Democrats have had higher rates of abortion than Republicans following ''Roe,'' while Brooks points out liberals have a lower

fertility rate The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if: # she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime # she were t ...

than conservatives. According to American historian

Elizabeth Fox-Genovese Elizabeth Ann Fox-Genovese (May 28, 1941 – January 2, 2007) was an American historian best known for her works on women and society in the Antebellum South. A Marxist early on in her career, she later converted to Roman Catholicism and became ...

the existence of such an effect "cannot be doubted" but "its nature, causes, and consequences may be." Fox-Genovese said that "Taranto has advanced an arresting argument that deserves more extended treatment."

Wellesley College Wellesley College is a private women's liberal arts college in Wellesley, Massachusetts, United States. Founded in 1870 by Henry and Pauline Durant as a female seminary, it is a member of the original Seven Sisters Colleges, an unofficial g ...

Professor of

Economics Economics () is the social science that studies the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods and services. Economics focuses on the behaviour and intera ...

Phillip Levine Phillip B. Levine (born 1963) is the Katharine Coman and A. Barton Hepburn Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. He is known for his research on the effect of interventions intended to benefit disadvantaged youth, as well as factors that ...

, while acknowledging that Taranto's hypothesis cannot be dismissed out of hand, has said there are several flaws in Taranto's reasoning. He writes that the conditions laid out by Taranto make several incorrect assumptions, most notably that pregnancies are events that are completely out of the control of the women. He writes, "If people engage in sexual activity (or not), or choose to use birth control (or not), independent of outside influences, then aranto's and Eastland'sstatistical statements would be valid." Levine concludes that the hypothesis passes the test of plausibility but that it "would be unwarranted to draw any definitive conclusions regarding the actual contribution of the Roe Effect in determining contemporary political outcomes."

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See also